Smallest Lamb Crop In 55 Years

Despite a return to normal weather conditions during this spring, New Zealand is looking at its second smallest lamb crop in 55 years.

The Beef + Lamb New Zealand Economic Service’s annual Lamb Crop Survey released today shows the number of lambs tailed this spring was 26.51 million. While this total is 1.72 million head more than last season, the 2010 numbers represent the smallest crop since 1956. Last year’s poor numbers were a direct result of adverse weather conditions hitting much of the country during the peak of lambing.

The North Island’s East Coast lambing percentage is estimated at 117.6 per cent – 7.8 percentage points higher than last season, but slightly behind the national average of 119.3 per cent.

Beef & Lamb New Zealand Chairman and Eastern North Island Director Mike Petersen says initial scanning results indicted lambing may be back on last season, but favourable winter conditions and good lamb survival rates have more than made up the difference.

“The past month has been wetter than normal for much of the East Coast, which is resulting in good grass growth and plenty of feed on hand for many operators. We could do with a little more sun, to boost grass and lamb growth, and many farmers have struggled to get forage crops in to wet ground. However most areas of this region have had a better growing year than usual and the mood is bouyant. “

Beef & Lamb New Zealand Economic Service Director Rob Davison says that, while this spring’s lambing percentage across New Zealand represents a recovery from last year, other factors are at play.

“The national average was 119 lambs born per 100 ewes, compared to 110 lambs per 100 ewes last year – a 9 percentage point lift. Compared with last spring, this year’s weather at peak lambing was vastly improved.

“However, offsetting the increased numbers of lambs born per 100 ewes was a 2.5 per cent decrease in the size of the country’s breeding ewe flock. This reflects the continuing expansion of the dairy herd and last season’s strong mutton prices, which encouraged a higher than usual cull of poorer performing ewes.”

Mr Davison says the relatively small lamb crop will have flow-on effects for New Zealand’s international trade.

“The number of prime lambs available for export this season is estimated to be 20.6 million. While that’s 1.3 million head more than last season, 2010-11 saw a 49-year low in the number of lambs processed, with this season shaping up to be the second lowest in 49 years.”

Carcass weights are predicted to average 18kg, down 1.4 per cent compared with last season’s record high of 18.23kg due to more lambs around to finish. Overall, lamb production on a carcass weight basis increases 5.3 per cent to 369,000 tonnes.

Mr Davison says early season payments to farmers for prime export lamb are strong, at around $8-$8.20 per kilogram. “Though indications are that these prices will ease back as the season progresses.”

The lamb crop is expected to generate $2.9b in export receipts – $100m more than 2010-11.

Mutton slaughter figures fall significantly by an estimated 24 per cent as the ewe flock stabilises. Last season there was a high mutton slaughter, 20 per cent up on the previous year due to strong international prices that encouraged a deeper culling than usual of poorer performing sheep.

The Lamb Crop Survey is compiled using information gathered by Beef & Lamb NZ field staff from about 540 properties – equivalent to 4 per cent of the country’s commercial sheep and beef farms.